Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the "Road Motor Vehicle Production Enterprises and Product Bulletin" (batch 286) of the vehicle new product announcement information, a total of 143 models of pure electric logistics vehicles selected, of which there are 97 models using ternary batteries, accounting for the entire announcement of 68%. According to zheshang securities calculations, in 2020, the demand for ternary batteries can reach 55.4 GWh (including bus) or 50.5 GWh (excluding bus), compared with the 2015 growth of 11.6 times or 10.5 times, there is a long-term growth space of 10 times. 50.5 GWh (excluding passenger cars), compared with 2015 growth of 11.6 times or 10.5 times, ternary battery long-term existence of 10 times the growth space, in the current state of the industry and the common influence of national policy, ternary batteries can have such a big development?

The advantages of ternary materials are well known:

Highest energy density: easing mileage anxiety (most central element)

High discharge voltage: high output power, stronger car power

Good low-temperature performance: cold weather can still be on the road at any time, alleviating driving anxiety caused by objective weather conditions.

Storage performance: Compared with the monthly decay of lithium iron phosphate of 3%, ternary only 1-2% per month, performance is more optimized.

If the former lithium iron phosphate is a five-story building with a very stable foundation, the ternary system is like a 'small high-rise' with even more excellent construction, materials, and floor height. As for the prospects, this type of 'building' also has great potential to be developed into skyscrapers. It is reported that with the high nickelization process of the material system, it is expected that the battery unit energy density of domestic ternary battery manufacturers will move from below 200 Wh/kg to 250~300 Wh/kg next year. The car factory is like a developer, the unit land area can build higher buildings and sell more houses, why not?

It is because of the above advantages and huge development potential of ternary batteries, the current international mainstream OEMs have basically turned to the ternary battery route. Typically, Tesla uses Panasonic batteries with NCA (ternary nickel-cobalt-aluminum system) as the cathode material, while most of the Japanese and Korean manufacturers use NCM (ternary nickel-cobalt-manganese system) as the main material, which is supplied to BMW, Volkswagen and other major manufacturers. There are still some domestic models, such as BAIC's first EV, the E150EV, which uses the lithium iron phosphate route, but the newly launched EV200 and ES210 have both shifted to ternary. On the supplier side, A123's ternary soft package products have also been launched, and the switch of technology route will be realized in the future.

At the same time, the domestic passenger car market ternary battery has occupied half of the rivers and mountains, especially before the iron plate of BYD, in its recently launched PHEV model "Song" began to use ternary batteries, the future is expected to further expand the proportion of applications. The market is expected to expand further.
Sales - let the numbers speak for themselves

In 2015, lithium iron phosphate and ternary batteries occupied the absolute mainstream in China's sold new energy vehicles. in 15 years, the output of automotive power batteries was 15.9 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 356.7 %, by battery type: lithium iron phosphate 10.86 GWh, accounting for 69%; ternary batteries 4.26 GWh, accounting for 27%. by policy Influenced by the policy, passenger cars with lithium iron phosphate batteries occupy an absolute advantage, but in passenger cars and special purpose vehicles ternary battery penetration rate are close to 60%; and there is a clear upward trend.

Policies -- more indicators in place, more rigorous screening

Last year, a series of events such as the fight against subsidies, subsidy adjustments and logistics vehicles into the subsidy catalog, have objectively played a catalytic role in the ternary battery market. Subsequent subsidy policy, the introduction of 'battery system quality ratio', 'tons of 100 km energy consumption' and other indicators, as well as the Ministry of Science and Technology Minister Wan Gang put forward the unit battery energy to reach more than 300 Wh, the cost down to less than 1 yuan of the target, which is the government in the catalytic Effective means to catalyze the 'skyscraper' effect of the ternary system.

Conclusion: Domestic power battery supplier structure is expected to be reorganized

Power battery is the 'heart' of the electric car, without high-quality batteries, the concept of the car and then ahead of the curve, the appearance of the beautiful, will eventually be out of the market, won only gimmick. At present, the domestic temporarily or lithium iron phosphate dominates the situation, the top few including LiShen, CATL and other suppliers are moving forward in an orderly manner. But the objective existence of ternary system advantages, coupled with the government's 'silent' support, I believe that within a few years, China's power battery market will enter the 'three-legged' situation. At that time, the manufacturers who have been focusing on ternary battery R & D, production, and cultivation of customers may be able to take advantage of this wind, and become the strongest competitor in the market in the pattern of the three worlds.